Balochistan: Iran's "sphere" of influence?

 

Balochistan: Iran's "sphere" of influence? 


Policy makers in Islamabad oblivious to adverse impacts of  the Iranian dynamic on Balochistan/Pakistan. 


Jan Achakzai 


That Iran enjoys at multiple level influence and this influence is definitely a nuisance for Pakistan can be cataloged in the following ways:  


1.Impact on economy: 


Smuggling is a big challenge from Iran harming national economy from oil to soap industry;  one estimate is up to 300/400 million dollar is its worth; though significant local population also depends on it as Govt fails to provide livelihood and complete curb  will make more youth available for militancy–a balancing act is needed to check smuggling. 


2. Impact on CPEC: Tehran's strategic planners have always looked upon Gawadar as a rival port undercutting Chabahar and an alternative hub giving access to warm water and ME for China and Russia. Iran thinks it is a natural conduit for such nations to link up with ME and beyond. Not allowing it to develop into a full blown economic and strategic port is one major objective of Iran long ignored by policy makers in Islamabad. 


3. Iranian soft intrusion and its impact on Balochistan particularly leverage on Shia population is alarming: 


From a university professor to a political activist, they enjoy a degree of Iranian support i.e., cultural tours and financial support. The local Iranian consulate coordinates mostly such activities and later on handed over to Iranian intel for engagement and debriefing–Eg, recent Hazara set in was called off to bury dead on the special appeal of Iranian Religious establishment. 


4. Impact on militancy and terrorism:


a) Ethnic Baloch separatists led by Dr Allah Nazar find sanctuary, succor and financial support in Iran. Most such groups operate along Iranian border so they can easily disappear into Iran after militant activities.This is with the full knowledge and complicity of Iranian deep state is pertinent. 


b) Al Zainaboon,/AL Fatimayoon (trained and raised by Iran for propping up of Syrian front) and Qasim group have recently been activated and they are highly likely to create a law and order situation post Hazara March incident. 


5. Iran–Afghanistan nexus and its impact. 


The local Afghan refugees particularly from the Hazara community come from Afghanistan and utilize local support and links to obtain IDs just like Pashtun refugees from Afghanistan get support from PKMAP and ANP in rehabilitating. So they start visiting Iran and make themselves available for recruitment and other Iranian induced activities. Porous border makes it easy for criminals and militant groups like Al Zainaboon,/AL Fatimayoon and Qasim forces to disappear and hide footprints. 

Afghanistan is also the operating base for ISIS to launch attacks in Balochistan. The NDS and the RAW are 25 kilometers away from the Chaman border to penetrate into Balochistan. It has no easy solution except eliminating bases and militant hideouts in their safe houses in Spin Boldak and Kandahar. Given the US withdrawal from Afganistan, terrorism spill over is not a matter of conjecture but reality. 


6. The Iran-India nexus and its impact on Balochistan. 


Indian nexus with Iranian deep state makes Balochistan on the boil and helps sustain militancy, besides, providing plausible deniability to Iran. Chabahar port is one such hub of Indian RAW operating active networks like Kulbushin Yadev across Pakistan. Smuggling routes of Iranian border makes it easier for the RAW to intrude its proxy elements and this is one such reason Iran is opposing fencing of the border by Pakistan. Collaboration between the Iranian Deep State and the RAW is so deep that the RAW officers shadow Iranian intel officers in Chabahar for effective coordination and benefiting Iranian links and leverages and its consulate's resources. So the Iranian dynamic makes Balochistan a big challenge for policy makers in Islamabad and Quetta. End

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